Health & Welfare | Daily Report

Following a sharp decline in births during the recession, the number of babies born in California is expected to grow more than 12 percent over the next decade, according to a recent projection by the state.

The Demographic Research Unit's report, which is used to predict public school enrollment, received little media attention when it was released last month. But the projection shows how the demographics of birth – the age and race of mothers, where babies are born and the state's overall fertility rate – will change in the next 10 years.

After climbing for six straight years, the number of births in the state fell 7 percent during the recession, from 566,137 in 2007 to 526,774 in 2009. The decline in births last year marked the largest single-year drop since 1990.

The state expects only a modest increase in births this year, but by 2019, California will be home to more than 592,000 newborns.

Babies in the coming decade will be born increasingly to women 30 and older. In 1990, mothers over 30 years old gave birth to 32 percent of babies. By 2000, they gave birth to 40 percent of babies. The state projects that figure to grow to 47 percent in 2019.

The number of births to women of nearly all racial backgrounds are expected to increase. From 2009 to 2019, the number of Asian women giving birth will increase by 5.1 percent. Among women of more than one race, births will jump 59.2 percent during the same time.

But the number of births to black women will drop 5.6 percent. Overall, black women will give birth to 4.6 percent of babies in 2019, the state says. Asians will give birth to 11.1 percent of babies, American Indians to 0.37 percent, Pacific Islanders to 0.47 percent and multiracial women to 2.6 percent. The majority of babies will be born to Latinos (53.7 percent) and whites (27.3 percent).

There will be more newborns in 54 of California's 58 counties in 2019. From 2009, births will drop 1.3 percent in Humboldt, 2.3 percent in Alameda, 7.7 percent in San Mateo and 23.4 percent in San Francisco counties.

Los Angeles County will see a nearly 15 percent jump in births, to more than 160,000 newborns in 2019. Riverside and San Joaquin counties will also see a significant increase in births.

But even with more newborns statewide, California's total fertility rate is below replacement level and will fall further by 2019. In other words, Californians are not having enough babies to replace themselves as they age.

A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed for a stable population. In 2009, California's fertility rate dipped to 2.03. The rate will inch down to 1.99 in 2019, the state says.