Money & Politics | Daily Report

Here's something else to blame on BP - voters aren't thrilled with power companies, even in California.

Proposition 16 - which would have required a two-thirds public vote to disconnect from PG&E and create public power agencies - was pretty much dead this morning, with only 47.5 percent of voters supporting. This defeat comes despite PG&E spending nearly $50 million to get the measure passed.

No on Prop. 16 campaign strategist Gale Kaufman said this morning: "Voters proved once again that they know the difference between true reform and something packaged and marketed by a single, for-profit utility to create a monopoly for themselves and boost their profits."

As Lance Williams noted on our blog recently:

Proponents of the initiative have spent an astonishing $46 million promoting Prop. 16. PG&E’s shareholders are footing the bill for all but $91,000 of the total; that amount came from the state Chamber of Commerce’s PAC.

By contrast, opponents have had only $90,000 to spend. The biggest donors were the state Association of Realtors ($25,000), the San Francisco consumer group The Utility Reform Network ($20,000) and two local Sierra Club chapters ($6,500). And so, PG&E spent $511 for every $1 the opponents shell out.

Another big-money initiative, Propositon 17, was dead as well. The "auto insurance pricing" initiative was seen by critics as a Torjan horse that would have lowered rates for some but big increases on new customers.

Richard Holober, executive director of the Consumer Federation of California, said the defeat of Prop. 17 "is a big win for California consumers who understood that the insurance industry wasn't spending a fortune to save us money. Voters can smell a rat, even a $16 million rat. The insurance industry spent $16 million on Prop 17, with $15 million from one company, Mercury Insurance."

- Robert Salladay

Silicon Valley voters not backing Silicon Valley candidates

Results from San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, which contain a large swath of Silicon Valley, are just rolling in, and the results aren't good for a couple of hometown candidates.

Chris Kelly, the former Facebook privacy chief running for attorney general, had about 20.2 percent of the San Mateo vote and 14.7 percent in Santa Clara. Apparent winner Kamala Harris, against whom Kelly waged a fierce and often negative campaign, held a wide lead in both counties, with 47 and 38 percent respectively.

A similar story is playing out in the local 21st Assembly district, although the race is tightening. With about 30 percent of precincts reporting, local county supervisor Rich Gordon led greentech entrepreneur Josh Becker 39 percent to 31.

- Chase Davis

Newsom, Maldonado win primary for Lieutenant Governor

Flickr photo by Denise Cross

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and incumbent Abel Maldonado have won their respective primaries for Lieutenant Governor.

The Democratic primary was viewed as a north-vs-south battle. Newsom won the nomination despite Los Angeles Councilwoman Janice Hahn capturing the large-voting counties of Los Angeles and Orange County. (Still, Newsom lost Orange County by only 1,200 votes in early returns.)

Newsom became a national figure when he issued marriage licenses for gay and lesbian couples as mayor of San Francisco, prompting a state Supreme Court ruling authorizing the same-sex marriages. He was thrust into the limelight of the Proposition 8 campaign in 2008, which overturned the ruling.

Maldonado survived the GOP primary despite angering many Republicans by voting for the state budget with Democrats and supporting the open primary initiative. He was appointed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to the position after the sitting Lt. Gov. John Garamendi was elected to congress. Maldonado was confirmed in April. 

- Timothy Sandoval

Voters approve open primary - let the lawsuits begin

California voters eagerly approved - for the third time in a dozen years - another change to how our elections are run.

Proposition 14, which was leading throughout the night, would create a "top-two" system where all candidates would be listed on a primary ballot, and the top two voter-getters would advance to the general election regardless of party. (The presidential race would remain the same.)

Supported by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, the constitutional change is designed to bring more moderate candidates into office. Opponents say it eliminates write-in candidates and the participation of lesser parties.

The state Democratic party has already threatened a possible lawsuit to challenge the new law, althought it's unclear how successful a legal challenge would be. As the Sacramento Bee reported: "A similar system enacted in Washington State was upheld by the Supreme Court, but some aspects of the challenge are still being litigated."

Bowen outlined one possible challenge in the Bee:

Bowen, who does not take an official stance on measures on the ballot, said she thinks concerns from California's minor parties that they would lose ballot qualified status under the change are legitimate. Under current law, most minor parties achieve state recognition by winning 2 percent of the vote in a statewide office during a midterm general election. That feat would be nearly impossible under the top-two model, as a third party candidate would be unlikely to emerge as a top vote-getter in a primary for statewide office.

- Robert Salladay

GOP race for Insurance Commissioner tight

8:04 a.m. UPDATE: Brian Fitzgerald carves out a win.

....

The race for Insurance Commissioner on the Republican side is much closer than expected given the wide margin of campaign cash spent by each candidate.

Mike Villines, a former Republican Assembly leader who is termed out this year, spent more than $200,000 on his campaign thus far, according to Secretary of State records filed in late May. So far he has 52 percent of the vote, with 19 percent of precincts reporting.

Brian Fitzgerald, a State Department Insurance enforcement lawyer who has spent only $5,000 his campaign, has 48 percent of the vote thus far.

Meanwhile, the Democratic race between Dave Jones and Hector De La Torre, two termed-out Assemblymen, has Jones with a wide lead so far, with 66 percent of the vote to De La Torre’s 34 percent.

The Democratic race was expected to be much closer than Republican race given the disparity in campaign funding. 

- Timothy Sandoval

Only Prop. 15 is losing in early returns

Surprise in schools chief race - Aceves on top

In somewhat of a surprise, Larry Aceves, a former district superintendent in San Jose, is leading the early vote for Superintendent of Public Instruction. With just a shade over 10 percent of precincts reporting, Aceves has 182,323 or 21.7% of the votes. He is followed by Assemblyman Tom Torlakson, D-Antioch, with 154,599 votes (18.4%) and state Sen. Gloria Romero with 122,550 (14.6%).

Since this is a nonpartisan race, the top two vote-getters today will advance to the November ballot.

Aceves' campaign, if successful, may have picked up steam late. Most observers predicted the race would come down to Torlakson and Romero. Torlakson is heavily supported by both the state's biggest teacher's unions: the California Teachers Association and the California Federation of Teachers; Romero has the backing of several wealthy philanthropists and other groups with strong ties to the charter-school movement.

Aceves was recruited to run by the Association of California School Administrators. And he has a great ballot designation - former school superintendent - which no doubt helped him with undecided voters in the ballot booth.

- Corey G. Johnson

In accepting, Brown acknowledges expensive fight ahead.

"Don't believe the next $50 million in advertising ..." - Jerry Brown, accepting the Democratic nomination for governor, and anticipating a barrage from GOP nominee Meg Whitman, a billionaire who spent $81 million.

For her part, Whitman said in her speech in Universal City: "I am battle tested now, and I'm ready to give Jerry Brown the toughest election fight he's faced in his 40 years of politics."

And she outlined her strategy against Brown, spending several paragraphs attacking his record as California governor in the late 1970s. She said:

Jerry Brown has spent a lifetime in politics, and the results have not been good. Failure seems to follow Jerry everywhere he goes. It's a record of promising much and delivering little. Of saying one thing, and then doing another. ... I say California can do better. Because while Jerry Brown's business is politics, my business is creating good new jobs.

And was this line a swipe at Schwarzenegger? Whitman said: "It's time for a different style of leadership. A new beginning. Not glitz, not glamour, not glibness." Unless she was talking about the glamour of Jerry Brown when he was dating Linda Ronstadt.

- Robert Salladay

Harris off to huge lead in San Francisco

Despite the crime lab scandal we mentioned earlier, Kamala Harris is pulling in 62 percent of the vote in her home county of San Francisco, according to the county's first returns.

- Chase Davis

AP calls Senate race for Fiorina

So says AP-er Juliet Williams on Twitter.

Hollywood party planner Quintana has 16% against Boxer

Self-styled Hollywood go-to guy Brian Quintana, whose tall tales about celebrity run-ins were documented in a lengthy LA Times piece last year, has so far pulled in nearly 16 percent of the vote in his quixotic Democratic run against incumbent Barbara Boxer.

At different points, Quintana has claimed actress Stefanie Powers sexually assaulted him (a claim that ended up in the National Enquirer), Paris Hilton attempted to sabotage his career, and movie producer Jon Peters tried to hire him as an assassin, according to the story.

"He did not drop names so much as machine-gun them," the Times story reads. "He spoke of relationships with an array of actors, directors, politicians and philanthropists. Among his claimed connections: Oprah Winfrey ("Are we best friends? No, but there's a kinship"), reality TV star Brody Jenner ("He would always say, 'Why are you always with the cool people?' "), filmmaker Bryan Singer ("I introduced him to Jon Peters") and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi."

Most of those people, according to the article, claimed they never knew Quintana.

In all, Quintana and Slate blogger Mickey Kaus have taken 21 percent of the Democratic vote from Boxer, who has been caught up in a wave of anti-incumbent sentiment that could prove challenging in November.

- By Chase Davis
 

Bee calls GOP governor's race for Whitman

Story here.
 

Harris polling strong so far in Bay Area counties

Despite taking a beating over her handling of a San Francisco crime lab scandal involving evidence tampering and even drug-skimming by a former employee, San Francisco Bay Area District Attorney is polling well so far in Bay Area counties, early returns show.

San Fran and San Mateo haven't reported yet, but Harris is showing healthy leads in Marin and Contra Costa counties, as well as a large swath of Northern California.

- By Chase Davis
 

The lastest results on propositions: Yes, No and Possible

Taitz upset looking less likely after early returns

Well-known birther Orly Taitz winning the GOP nomination for Secretary of State would be "a disaster," California Republican strategists told Politico earlier today.

But in her showdown against former NFL (and apparently XFL) player Damon Dunn, early returns so far have Taitz coming up short. She's currently at about 26 percent of the vote to Dunn's 74.

Many of the state's more mainstream Republicans, even hard right-wing Senate candidate Chuck Devore, have denounced Taitz's bid, but some strategists still predicted she could pull an upset.

Dunn didn't mount much of a campaign against Taitz, telling Politico "“I’m just going to take the high road.”

- By Chase Davis

Early results show Whitman, Fiorina and Harris ahead

The first results from Los Angeles County show Whitman 68 percent to Poizner 23 percent in the GOP primary. In other races, U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina took 60 percent to Tom Campbell's 20 percent, and Kamala Harris was at 23 percent compared to 17 percent for Chris Kelly, the former Facebook executive, and Rocky Delgadillo at just about 17 percent as well.

It's still early. Only 7 perrecent of votes counted.

UPDATE: Here's the first results in the governor's race from the Secretary of State:

A little Election Night perspective

For those of us in the political bubble, it's easy to think that the rest of the world cares as much about today's primary as we do.

Clearly that's not so. And here's proof, courtesy of Google Trends.

Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina -- two of the most talked- and Googled-about candidates this election, are in blue and red respectively.

Washington Nationals rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg, who did not disappoint in possibly the most anticipated pitching debut in major league baseball history, is in yellow.

Low turnout? What?

- By Chase Davis
 

Whitman victory speech already on the teleprompter

The San Francisco Chronicle snagged a quick video of GOP candidate Meg Whitman's victory speech already loaded and ready to go at her election night party in Universal City.

"Thank you so much," the script reads. "What a great night! This victory is yours! I just received a very gracious phone call from Steve Poizner conceding the race."

Not yet. KCRA has a response from Steve Poizner: "From KCRA 3's David Bienick: 6:40 p.m.: Poizner #cagov campaign reax to Whitman's 'victory' speech: "Her words have been disingenuous throughout this entire campaign. Why stop now?"

- Robert Salladay

Might Kobe be costing Democrats votes?

Over at the Sac Bee, Jack Chang reports that campaigns are concerned that tonight's Lakers/Celtics NBA Finals matchup might drive already-low voter turnout even lower.

Most of the high-profile action today is on the Republican side of the ticket, and that may be a good thing for the camps involved: a study earlier this year by a GOP research firm estimates that NBA fans -- especially those more likely to turn out in an election -- tend to lean Democratic.

Republicans, apparently, are bigger fans of almost everything else, especially college football, NASCAR and golf. Baseball and NFL football tend to be centrist sports.

- By Chase Davis
 

Prediction markets show Fiorina, Whitman winning easily

The prediction markets over at Intrade are calling Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina virtual locks to win their respective races today, with each standing a better than 90 percent chance of victory.

Intrade gained some fame in political circles in 2004, when its markets accurately predicted the presidential election winner in all 50 states, even when polls pegged some races as too close to call.

For the sports fans in the audience, Intrade is also predicting a 40 percent chance that LeBron James stays in Cleveland.

- By Chase Davis
 

Brown set to rock LA club scene

While Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner party up the LA hotel scene for their Election Night soirees tonight, their opponent (and the oldest guy on the ticket) seems to have chosen the hippest E-Night hotspot of them all.

This evening, Jerry Brown and his entourage are set to roll into LA's Club Nokia, which recently has played host to bands like the Buzzcocks, Cobra Starship and Norwegian synth-pop trio a-ha. (Remember them?)

Reviews on Yelp have been mixed. One reviewer noted a "sense of elitism" as you walk in. Another lamented the $8 -- $8?! -- Heinekens. Others had nicer things to say. Apparently the a-ha show last month was awesome.

- By Chase Davis
 

Flickr photo by Denise Cross

Leading Republicans far outspend Brown; left with less money to start general election run

Whoever wins the Republican gubernatorial race in today’s primary election-Meg Whitman or Steve Poizner- will have to spend more of their personal finances on their campaign or start collecting contributions fast.

After spending a record breaking $61,068,953.20 on her campaign thus far, Meg Whitman’s campaign account is left with $3,774,640.90. Steve Poizner, who spent $20,516,536.51 thus far, is now left with $2,995,112.27.

On the other side of the ticket, Democratic candidate Jerry Brown has spent a mere $403,684.60 so far on his campaign, and has banked $20,633,704.93 in contributions.

Brown faced little competition in his primary run. Whitman and Poizner faced off in an up and down race with many attack ads, even one accusing Whitman of starting a separate division of eBay that sold porn.

- By Timothy Sandoval
 

FPPC: independent expenditure committees have dropped $15 million on primary

The Fair Political Practices Commission, which monitors and regulates campaign spending, said today that independent expenditure committees have spent $15 million supporting or opposing candidates running in today's election.

The commission keeps a running tally of IE spending on its Web site, which you can check out here.

- By Chase Davis
 

eBay steps up with a late donation, but not to Whitman

Meg Whitman's former employer, eBay, reported a late contribution this morning, but not to their former boss.

The online auctionhouse gave $1,000 to the Assmebly campaign of Silicon Valley darling Josh Becker, a Democrat running for a seat in the 21st Assembly District.

The company hasn't spread much money around this election cycle but did drop $25,000 last year to support a slate of budget reform propositions backed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

- By Chase Davis
 

Machine spits out Schwarzenegger's ballot for voting twice

The AP reports: "Poll worker Keta Hodgson says a scanning machine rejected Schwarzenegger's first ballot Tuesday because he selected two Senate candidates, instead of one. Hodgson says the Republican governor was given the choice of filling out a new ballot or not having his Senate choice count. He cast a fresh ballot."

- By Robert Salladay
 

Voting guide from California Voter Foundation

Check it out here.
 

Polls deemed most accurate have Whitman winning big

Two recent polls that peg Meg Whitman as a virtually guaranteed winner in today's Republican gubernatorial primary have been ranked among the most accurate in the country, according to a study released this week by political/statistical website FiveThirtyEight.com.

The widely respected Field Poll took the crown as the nation's most accurate, according to the study. It also showed Whitman heading into Election Day with a whopping 26-point lead over Poizner.

The third most reliable firm in the study is a little more interesting: SurveyUSA – the same pollsters whose tracking poll had Poizner and Whitman in a virtual dead heat in early May, only to swing wildly in favor of Whitman two weeks later.

Right after the shift, my colleague Lance Williams spoke with SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve, who admitted he "was just as surprised as you are." Lance broke down Leve's thoughts like this:

California Republicans may have said to themselves, “'Let me look at Poizner' – they’re not sure they want Meg Whitman to coast to a win,” he said. But in the past two weeks, Poizner “doesn’t close the sale,” and Republicans are returning to Whitman, he suggested.

A couple other notable California polls also made an appearance in the rankings. The Public Policy Institute of California poll (which had Whitman up by 9 points a few weeks ago) came in 31st, ahead of brands like the CBS/New York Times poll. The Los Angeles Times poll ranked further down, next to the Albuquerque Journal.

For the nerds in the room, the study's methodology is available here. Basically, it looks at the accuracy of polls for president, U.S. House, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races released right before an election every year since 1998.

Of course, pollsters have been wrong before. As they say in baseball, that's why you play the game.

Poizner will be keeping his fingers crossed at his election night party in Irvine while Meg Whitman parties it up in Los Angeles. Jerry Brown will be in LA, too, holding his election night bash at Club Nokia.

We'll keep you posted as the news rolls in.

- By Chase Davis