Money & Politics | Daily Report

Mike Villines

The Republican primary for Insurance Commissioner may be one of the biggest surprises of Tuesday’s primary elections, leaving many puzzled by the results.

Brian FitzGerald, an Insurance Department enforcement lawyer, spent less than the $5,000 threshold that would force him to electronically report his campaign finances. His makeshift campaign was entirely internet-based, consisting of his blog and Facebook page. FitzGerald called himself “Fitz the Unknown” on his blog page, and admitted in news reports that he was a long shot.

On the other side, Mike Villines, a former Republican Assembly leader who is termed out this year, spent more than $200,000 on his campaign, according to Secretary of State records filed in late May. Villines also banked more than $200,000 to use for a general election run, and had already scheduled a fundraiser with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in attendance set for June 30.

Despite the disparity in campaign money and name recognition, FitzGerald holds a lead of more than 11,000 votes with 100 percent of the precincts counted, but with some provisional and mail-in ballots still remaining.

Tim Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento, said the race was “one of the interesting mysteries” of Tuesday’s primary election.

Even FitzGerald was surprised at the results.

“I went to bed just a little after 11 p.m. last night and said to ‘hell with this, I am not going to stay up all night seesawing with this thing,’ ” FitzGerlad said while laughing in an interview yesterday.

FitzGerald had been trailing 52 percent to 48 percent on election night with 19 percent of precincts reported.  Media reports still commented on the surprisingly close race.

FitzGerald said he woke up the next day at 4 a.m before work, made some coffee and took a look at the results.

“I said ‘okay, lets go check the results; brace yourself, lets go see how bad it is,” FitzGerald said.

FitzGerald was surprised at what he saw.

“Everything had flip-flopped,” FitzGerald said. “I went to bed thinking one thing and woke up to different news.”

FitzGerald, who lives in Napa County, said there was no other independent campaigns working on his behalf that he was aware of. His campaign expenses included a 43-word statement in the California Voter’s Guide, costing $1,075 (at $25 dollars a word); $2,800 to file with the state; and $350 in airfare to meet with the Los Angles Times editorial board, which was compiling its list of primary election preferences.

FitzGerald said he used his meeting with LA Times to try and score some other free press with local papers, though Villines received the LA Times recommendation.

The Santa Rosa Press Democrat endorsed FitzGerald for the Republican primary for insurance commissioner earlier this month. The Napa County register profiled FitzGerald in an article last month, and the Sacramento Bee profiled him in a June 3 article as well.

The Sacramento Bee article mentioned that FitzGerald’s blog post had received only 1,557 hits as of June 3. His facebook post received only about 500 hits.

Posts on his blog and facebook were often humorous and seemingly off the cuff. Commenting on why he did not send out any mailers to voters about his campaign, FitzGerald posted this:

I've been asked why I don't do mailers. If you're supporters of mine you're savvy and know how to do Internet press and media research so that's your homework assignment for tonight. Those who don't support me are the types who can't recall what happened five minutes ago and don't get what the Hell I'm talking about.

FitzGerald said that he hoped his success hinged on his campaign message- that he was an experienced 16-year Department of Insurance veteran who did not need to learn on the job.

FitzGerald’s lead may actually be more indicative of conservatives discontent with Mike Villines, who voted with Democrats to pass a budget last year that included tax increases.

“You have to assume that there was some residual anger against Villines for the 2009 budget deal,” Hodson said.

Villines was heavily criticized by notable conservatives, including popular Los Angles radio hosts John Kobylt and Kenneth Chiampou of the John and Ken show (the John and Ken Show website currently features Mike Villines head on a stick). FitzGerald was interviewed on the John and Ken show on May 25. (FitzGerlad won Los Angles county by well over 20,000 votes.)

Hodson said that the candidate’s ballot designations may also have had an impact on the insurance commissioner race.

The ballot designation identified FitzGerald as “department's enforcement attorney,” and Villines as “businessman/state assemblyman.” The designation does not specify what department FitzGerald is an attorney for.

Jennifer Gibbons, a spokeswoman for the Villines campaign, said the campaign remained hopeful that Villines will come out ahead after the tens of thousands of provisional and mail-in ballots are tallied.

Gibbons said Villines ran a tight campaign partially because Villines wanted to conserve money in case he won the general election nomination. Villines did not do any radio or TV ads for his primary run, but did send out some campaign mailers.

She said she was unsure whether or not Villines vote on the 2009 budget would have been the definitive reason for the results of the election, pointing out that Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, who voted for the budget as well, won his primary race.

Hodson pointed out that Maldonado faced five competitors in his race, and only received a plurality of the votes. Had Maldonado ran against only one competitor (as Villines did) he may have lost, Hodson said.

Gibbons said Villines never thought that the primary was going to be an easy victory.

“We did the best we could without radio and TV ads,” Gibbons said. “We knew from the beginning that it was going to be tough to reach voters and make sure Mike got the opportunity to tell voters why he was the best candidate for the job.”

Whoever comes out ahead will have to face off against Dave Jones, a termed-out Assemblyman and chair of Assembly Health Committee, who won the Democratic primary yesterday.