In a post on the CNN Entertainment site in February, a writer from The Frisky predicted that Jeff Bridges was the most likely candidate to win best actor because, "The Oscar generally goes to the dude who has the most best actor and best supporting nominations under his belt already."
The Dude vacuums
Using this logic, Bridge's four prior nominations – one for best actor and three for best supporting actor – would make him a shoo-in.
To test the pre-Oscars hypothesis, Flowing Data's Nathan Yau crunched some numbers and found that, "Only 10 out of the past 29 winners, or just over a third, had the most nominations their year. Take a look at the data since 1980."
Yau also noted that "Didn't Forest Whitaker, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Jaimie Foxx recently win on their first nominations for the coveted award?"
Jeff Bridges won.
But Yau was steeled for this eventuality. "Of course when Jeff Bridges wins tonight, the theory authors will declare victory, but oh well," he wrote.
Comments
via Twitter