Public Safety, Money & Politics | Daily Report

Groups supporting Proposition 19 have hauled in approximately $2 million in October even as polls find shriveling popular support for the marijuana-legalization initiative.

Those dollars are funding the first television ad promoting the ballot measure, which will air throughout this final week of the campaign.

World Economic Forum/FlickrGeorge Soros

Half of the cash is from multibillionaire George Soros, who on Tuesday pledged $1 million to the Yes on 19 political action committee.

Nearly all other late campaign dollars also came in as large donations from wealthy individuals, data from the secretary of state’s office shows. There does not appear to be a groundswell of donors with smaller bank accounts joining the cause.

Contributions this month for $25,000 and more to the three committees backing Prop. 19 include:

That list includes notable out-of-staters like Peter Lewis, chairman of auto insurer Progressive Corporation, who is on there twice, listing two different locations as his home base.

At the bottom of the pile is Adam Eidinger, co-owner of Capitol Hemp stores, which sell hemp-based products in and around the District of Columbia.

Eidinger said he donated $25,000 at the urging of his friend and fellow Prop. 19 donor, David Bronner, head of Dr. Bronner’s Magic Soaps. While Eidinger said he supported Prop. 19 from its start, he hadn’t intended to provide financial backing.

Many political observers believed the national climate this year would prove unfriendly to endeavors like legalizing pot.

If approved, Prop. 19 would eliminate most of California’s prohibitions against marijuana possession and use. People would be allowed to possess less than an ounce and grow a limited amount of marijuana on their property.

Last month, polls showed a majority of likely voters supported the ballot initiative.

“It became apparent in the first week of September that this is worth going balls to the wall for,” Eidinger said, “because it could win.”

Voter sentiment, however, appears to have changed appreciably since Eidinger’s realization. Two recent polls of likely voters suggest Prop. 19 is headed to defeat.

The latest survey, conducted by the Los Angeles Times, found the measure is down by 12 percentage points. The details, as the Times reported:

The poll … found the measure favored by Democrats and independents, but overwhelmingly opposed by Republicans. Men were split, and women were leaning against it.

Both sides consider mothers a key swing vote and have debated whether the measure would do more to keep marijuana out of the hands of children or would increase use.
Likely voters younger than 40 are in favor of it by 48 percent to 37 percent, but older voters, who say they are more enthusiastic about voting in this election, are not. Among likely voters 65 and over, only 28 percent support the measure, while 59 percent said they were opposed.

Stephen Gutwillig, California director of the Drug Policy Alliance, said the October donations are not a panicked reaction to a turn in public opinion. Further, Gutwillig said he doubts the polling numbers truly reflect voters’ intentions.

“Automated polls are consistently showing significantly higher support for Proposition 19," Gutwillig said, "which suggests that a certain number of likely voters are not comfortable telling a live pollster, who knows their name and address, what their real position is on ending failed marijuana prohibition.”

Prop. 19 opponents have done little fundraising, benefiting instead from a chorus of law enforcement and elected officials condemning the measure.

Another major snag is that even if Prop. 19 changes California law, marijuana remains illegal under the federal Controlled Substances Act. U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder has said federal law enforcement would continue to enforce the prohibition on pot in California.

The question now for Prop. 19 supporters is whether the last-minute televised ads, made possible by this cash infusion, can win over both undecided voters and some who are now against the measure.

The TV spot features Joseph McNamara, former San Jose police chief, using a public safety argument to urge voters to pass the initiative. Among other things, Prop. 19 would “allow police to focus on violent crimes and put drug cartels out of business,” McNamara says in the ad.